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The emergence of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has given an unrequested, rare, and prominent moment to the discipline of Epidemiology. The rigors and tools of epidemiology are critical in such situations, as public health threats progress from misunderstood or poorly understood to managed to possible eradication.
Open Journal PUBLISHERS Editorial Nothing is Simple * Mark Wesson, MPH, FACHE* th Healthcare Development Consultancy, 110 37th Avenue, San Mateo, CA 94403, USA * *Corresponding author Mark Wesson, MPH, FACHE th Prinipal, Healthcare Development Consultancy, 110 37th Avenue, San Mateo, CA 94403, USA; E-mail: wesma31@gmail.com Article information th th th th Received: December 17 , 2020; Revised: January 7 , 2020; Accepted: January 7 , 2021; Published: January 18 , 2021 Cite this article Wesson M. Nothing is Simple. Epidemiol Open J. 2021; 6(1): e1. doi: 10.17140/EPOJ-6-e002 he emergence of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) At this moment, the United States is experiencing a third pandemic has given an unrequested, rare, and prominent mo- “wave” of infections, if the first is counted. Hospitalizations and T ment to the discipline of Epidemiology. The rigors and tools of patient mortality rates are up and yet 50 million Americans and epidemiology are critical in such situations, as public health threats 90% of last year’s Thanksgiving airline travelers planned travel. progress from misunderstood or poorly understood to managed What is often apparent to epidemiologists or other scientists or to possible eradication. Those trained well can hold the dual levers clinicians is not always clear to the public. The nature and mag- of scientific knowledge and public office at the same moment and nitude of risk posed by airline travel to family gatherings where steer societies from fear and suspicion when outbreaks occur to multiple groups travel to be together is hard to know for sure but a sense of calm accomplishment and resumption of “life as nor- likely approaches levels unquantifiable by modern science. While mal.” In these moments epidemiology’s true influence over the last policymakers and scientists pleaded with the public not to travel, 200 years is evident. However, no force can act alone. many did so and a predictable increase in infections has followed. The Christmas holiday is approaching. Will we decide to do the It is often said in business that “culture beats strategy”. same again?
The most beautifully crafted management plans can be derailed by attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors of groups. While epidemiology Vaccines have arrived and optimism abounds in the Unit- offers powerful tools for understanding the origin(s), population ed States and in other countries. Perhaps the beginning of the end spread patterns and prediction by nature its focus is the popula- is here. Until it is, individual responsibility to the group to remain tion. And it depends upon the population’s adherence to time- well and prevent infections will continue to be critical. And the tested infectious disease precautions. Perhaps the modern-era and rationality and clarity of Epidemiology will compete with the sub- regretfully still challenging experience with the correct and consis- jective, shifting winds of culture.
tent use of condoms in reducing Human Immunodeficiency Virus transmission provides a parallel example.
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